Natural gas prices poised to jump in 2025, predicts new report
CBC
After another year of slumped natural gas markets across North America, a new report says 2025 could bring a jump in prices.
An oil and gas price forecasting report published by Deloitte on Dec. 31 said an increased demand for Canadian natural gas coupled with growing LNG shipping capacity could translate into higher prices in the new year.
That demand will serve to round out an oversupply of natural gas that Canada saw throughout 2024, said Andrew Botterill, a partner with Deloitte and a co-author of the report, leading to a healthier market balance.
And with the new LNG Canada export terminal in B.C. expected to come online mid-2025, Botterill said the industry is in a good position to meet some of those growing needs.
"Structurally, the natural gas market for 2025 just looks so much better," said Botterill.
"I think companies are really teeing their budgets, being prepared for that opportunity to develop more of their natural gas opportunities."
Botterill said the first main factor driving new demand for Canadian natural gas are markets in the U.S. and Mexico, which will have more LNG projects coming online in the next couple of years.
"That means we're going to have even more LNG exports off North America, so more opportunity for natural gas markets to be developed," said Botterill, citing the integrated nature of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico market.
Continued growth in the use of natural gas for electricity generation across the country is another factor driving demand, said Botterill.
According to Deloitte's report, natural gas demand for electricity generation has grown by an average of five per cent per year over the last decade — and with electricity needs on the rise across the country, Botterill expects the trend to continue.
Low natural gas prices throughout 2024 were in part propelled by increased drilling activity in anticipation of more LNG shipping opportunities, but according to the report, that imbalance is expected to correct in the upcoming year.
Projections in changes for demand of Canadian natural gas have in turn changed investor behaviour, said Botterill, leading to a spike in financing over the last year in particular.
According to Deloitte's report, 2024 saw investments in the oil and gas sector reach their highest levels since 2017, with $12.8 billion invested in the second quarter of 2024 alone.
New investment has been primarily directed toward developing new energy projects, infrastructure and technologies, according to the report — the largest of those on the natural gas side being the LNG Canada export terminal.
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