Ford set to unveil 2026 Ontario budget as economy remains volatile

Premier Doug Ford's government tables its eighth budget Thursday, as Ontario's economy faces global economic volatility and heightened levels of unemployment at home.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is due to deliver the spending plan in the legislature at 4 p.m. ET.

Here's what to watch for.

Ontario’s economy has struggled, but also shown resilience in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

That’s because the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the province’s trade-exposed economy has been uneven, hitting some sectors harder than others. 

Unemployment in Ontario was 7.6 per cent in February, and has been steadily on the rise since mid-2023, well before Trump returned to office. In the second and third quarters of 2025, the province lost nearly 40,000 jobs in the auto, steel and aluminum sectors because of the tariffs. 

But there have been some positive signs. 

The province’s independent fiscal watchdog said the province appeared to avoid a recession in 2025 as the final numbers for the year were tallied. The Financial Accountability Office said in a separate report that Ontario’s gross domestic product growth, the broadest measure of economic health, was better than expected in 2025. 

But with the war in Iran affecting fuel costs and uncertainty surrounding this summer’s free trade negotiations, it’s a challenging environment in which to write a fiscal plan.

The budget documents will provide a glimpse into the province’s economic projections for 2026, so those will be metrics to watch closely.

Ford has said in the weeks leading up to the budget that his focus will be on protecting the economy from Trump’s tariffs. 

“It's all about protecting communities, protecting their jobs,” Ford said recently. “It's about the economy, making sure people can bring home a paycheque. It's absolutely critical.” 

But the premier hasn’t spelled out what that specific tariff-relief policy will look like. Last year, the province earmarked $14 billion in targeted aid, which largely focused on time-limited tax deferrals for hard-hit businesses. 

But those measures ended last fall. So what’s next?