Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre see very different threats to Canada

Thirty-seven years ago, inside a television studio in Ottawa, John Turner thrust an index finger at Brian Mulroney and warned that with one stroke of a pen Mulroney had reversed 120 years of national development and thrown Canada into the "north-south influence of the United States." 

"When the economic levers go, the political independence is sure to follow," Turner said.

Turner lost both the election and the larger debate — the free-trade deal between Canada and the United States went ahead and came into effect two months later. But that exchange — possibly the most dramatic in the 60-year history of televised leaders' debates in Canada — is still replayed on television at election time. And Turner's warning now could be said to hang over the 2025 campaign.

In truth, a televised debate is not well-suited to settling big questions of national purpose and direction.

In 1988, the three leaders — John Turner for the Liberals, Brian Mulroney for the Progressive Conservatives and NDP leader Ed Broadbent — spent six hours in close proximity, three in English and three in French. They were each given three minutes — a luxurious amount of time by current standards — for both opening and closing statements. And Turner still insisted that a third debate, devoted entirely to the free-trade deal, was necessary.

In 2025, four party leaders shared four hours together, two in each official language. They raced through a couple dozen topics. They were given 10 seconds to say what they felt was the biggest security threat facing the country. Their closing statements were capped at 45 seconds. 

The result of a modern debate is always something of a blur. But what this year's encounters underlined is that this election is primarily about both two very different candidates for prime minister and two very different ideas of what the greatest threat to the country actually is. 

For Liberal Leader Mark Carney, the pre-eminent crisis facing Canada is Donald Trump and everything he represents. For Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, the primary crisis is Justin Trudeau and the Liberal agenda of the last nine years. 

"It may be difficult to, Mr. Poilievre — you spent years running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax and neither — they're both gone," Carney said at one point on Thursday night.

Of course, for the Conservative leader, that is not nearly enough. 

"Are you prepared to elect the same Liberal MPs, the same Liberal ministers, the same Liberal staffers all over again for a fourth term?" he asked viewers.

For Poilievre, this election is entirely about "change" — change that, in Poilievre's telling, is desperately needed. Holding himself out as an example of what's possible in this country, Poilievre posits that the "promise" of Canada has been broken.

"Many of you are worried about paying your bills, feeding your families, even owning a home. You're worried your kids are in danger," Poilievre said in his closing statement. "But I'm here to say it doesn't have to be this way."

Poilievre's response is to do things very differently — to cut spending, repeal regulations, build pipelines and wield the notwithstanding clause to impose harsher sentences on those convicted of crimes. Whatever Mark Carney promises to do differently or better, Poilievre contends that he cannot be trusted.