Liberals ride the anti-Trump wave to victory in Canada

Canada's 2025 election results were influenced by U.S. President Trump, leading to a surprising Liberal Party victory.

It is rare for the results of an elections in one country to be swayed by the leader of a neighbouring country. Yet that was the case in Canada’s 2025 federal election, where U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements and actions dramatically shifted the national mood within days.

While the Conservative Party was expected to win decisively, Mr. Trump’s tariffs and his provocative suggestion of annexing Canada helped rescue the Liberal Party from a crushing defeat.

Chart 1 shows the voting intentions of Canadians based on opinion polls conducted during the campaign period.

The lines represent the average of 30 polls conducted between 2021 and 2025. As the chart illustrates, towards the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, support for the Conservatives began rising, while support for the Liberal Party started declining.

This marked shift can be attributed to the unpopularity of former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose fiscal policies and generous immigration stance faced heavy criticism.

Just before Mr. Trudeau resigned in January this year, popular support for the Liberal Party had fallen to 20% — the lowest level for the party in years. In contrast, support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party had surged to 45%. Barring any dramatic shifts, the Conservatives appeared poised for victory.

However, shortly after Mr. Trudeau’s exit and more significantly after Mr. Trump’s return to the White House was confirmed in February, there was a dramatic rise in support for the Liberals, as seen in Chart 1.