Joe Biden Risks A Major Middle East War If He Makes The Wrong Choices

As Israel increases its aggression towards Lebanon, officials tell HuffPost Biden isn't doing enough to quell tensions and prevent conflict involving the U.S.

On Jan. 2, a surprise Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut suggested 2024 could open with a terrifying spiral: An expansion of the Israel-Hamas war into Lebanon that could draw in the U.S., Iran and even nuclear weapons.

A few days later, that prospect seems slightly more remote, as the players involved have so far largely avoided ratcheting up tensions further. But it remains far more likely than many national security officials and experts would like ― and they say President Joe Biden is the only person who can truly prevent disaster.

At the heart of the simmering conflict is the animosity between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Israeli leaders view Hezbollah as a threat that is arguably even greater than the Palestinian militant group Hamas ― which sparked the current Middle East crisis with a brutal Oct. 7 attack inside Israel ― because of the Lebanese group’s tens of thousands of fighters and sophisticated weaponry. Hezbollah is allied with Hamas. Both organizations receive support from Iran, and since Israel began its devastating campaign against Hamas inside the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has repeatedly struck targets on the Israeli side of the country’s northern border with Lebanon. Israel has retaliated with attacks that include strikes on civilians, journalists and Lebanon’s U.S.-backed army. Human rights advocates believe Israel’s moves may constitute war crimes. On either side of the Lebanese-Israeli border, more than 70,000 people have fled their homes.

The Beirut strike, which killed a Hamas leader based in Lebanon and which U.S. and Israeli officials confirmed was performed by Israel, was an escalation. For Lebanon and the influential larger countries connected to its fate, it boosted the chances of war because it underscored Israel’s appetite for a broader conflict and its seeming confidence the U.S., its chief source of arms and diplomatic support, will not rein in its aggression.

Multiple U.S. and European officials interviewed by HuffPost say that despite Hezbollah’s links to Hamas, it has strong reasons to avoid a bigger war and has demonstrated that is not its preferred outcome. Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies summarized the upshot in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Jan. 3: “The party most likely to ignite an all-out war is Israel, and only the U.S. can help avert that.”