Iran may be losing the battles, but it might still win the war

Contrary to U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims, it is clear that Iran is neither on the verge of collapse nor prepared to concede in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran

President Donald Trump’s address to the nation on the war with Iran on April 1 was brief and offered little that was new. There was anticipation that he might announce either a major escalation — such as a ground war — or declare victory and a ceasefire. Neither happened. Instead, he justified the U.S. strikes as aimed at eliminating Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons and project power beyond its borders. He also stated that regime change was not his goal. He claimed that Iran’s capabilities were mostly destroyed and that he would target Iran’s industrial and power infrastructure. Along with regime change he has now abandoned the freeing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Contrary to Mr. Trump’s claims, it is clear that Iran is neither on the verge of collapse nor prepared to concede. On the contrary, Tehran has demonstrated that it retains multiple instruments of retaliation, and the capacity to escalate horizontally — striking back against U.S. bases and its regional adversaries while blocking 25% of the global supply of oil and gas.

From the outset, this writer has argued, in the global media, that the U.S. and Israel will most certainly secure tactical victories. They will be able to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and its industrial capacity, and even kill many Iranians, but they would struggle to achieve their broader strategic objectives. These goals — particularly regime change — are unattainable without a large-scale ground invasion that could cause huge American casualties.

Several respected voices reinforce this assessment. Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, Ross Harrison of the Middle East Institute, and former Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan have all warned that while the U.S. may achieve tactical successes, there is no clear pathway to strategic victory.

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