Internal DND study calls green technology minerals 21st-century 'oil weapon'

Minerals needed to power the green transition from fossil fuels could become "the 21st-century version of the 'oil weapon,'" warns an internal study commissioned by Canada's Department of National Defence.

There is widespread agreement among scientists that drastic cuts in fossil fuel consumption are needed to stave off catastrophic climate change — and a transition to electric cars, wind and solar power form key pillars of this shift.

But as countries race to adopt more electric technologies, investors and governments are battling to control access to commodities like copper, lithium and rare earths from remote regions. This has led many observers to fear that the green transition could have echoes of the tension and violence characterizing the global pursuit of oil.

"The explosive growth of electronic devices in the past decade, coupled with fast-moving advances in green technologies such as wind power and electric vehicles, are driving the increase in demand for REEs [rare earth elements]," said the study produced for DND in 2020, and accessed under freedom of information legislation.

"REEs are also crucial for national security as they are key ingredients in the production of a variety of defence-related components and applications," said the study. "Any disruption to the availability of rare earths could have serious economic and national security impacts around the world."

Rare earth elements are a group of 17 commodities with names like neodymium, cerium and yttrium. They're key components for advanced technologies, including hybrid vehicles, laser-guidance systems and flat-screen monitors. 

Analysts said the general trend of competition for control also applies to other minerals needed for the energy transition, such as copper and lithium.

The paper said that China "has already shown that it is willing to use its rare earths as a political weapon," citing Beijing's 2010 move to halt REE shipments to Japan following the latter's detention of a Chinese fishing crew during a maritime border dispute. 

China controls about 90 per cent of the world's supply of rare earth elements, said the study, which warned that clean technology minerals could be a "21st century version of the 'oil weapon' that Arab countries used during the 1973 OPEC embargo," when petroleum exports were halted to the U.S. in retaliation for Washington's support for Israel.

Nearly 100 pages of DND's internal files were withheld, underscoring the sensitivity of information surrounding access to these resources.

The Department of National Defence declined an interview request. In emailed comments, a spokesperson said the study, conducted for DND by Canada's National Research Council, has not led to any direct actions from the military. It has, however, "informed broader departmental discussions that are ongoing."

DND is in talks with the U.S. over the countries' "shared defence industrial base," the spokesperson said. 

To fuel the green transition, environmentalists fear demand for new mines, often in remote and ecologically sensitive areas, will lead to contamination as well as violence between communities and investors.

These local conflicts could rise in tandem with geopolitical strife between countries and corporations as power brokers jockey to control increasingly valuable resources everywhere from South American rainforests to Canada's Far North and the Democratic Republic of Congo.