Indigenous populations in Thunder Bay and Kenora may be undercounted. Officials say that's a problem

New studies suggest urban Indigenous population in two northwestern Ontario cities are significantly higher than what's been recorded in the census, and municipal officials say that means their communities are missing out on provincial funding as a result. 

A study released last week by Well Living House, a Toronto-based Indigenous health research centre, projects the Indigenous population of Kenora is two to four times higher than the 3,595 people recorded in the census data.

Kenora city councillor Mort Goss said the study shows there is a need to provide more funding for appropriate social service resources in his city of 15,000 people.

"If these numbers are that skewed from the reality that we're barely dealing with, imagine how difficult it is to deal with this when these numbers aren't even counted and we're not being funded properly."

The same researchers analyzed data from Thunder Bay in 2021 and estimated the Indigenous population to be somewhere between 23,080 and 42,641.

New Statistics Canada data released earlier this month says there were 15,055 Indigenous people living within Thunder Bay's municipal boundaries at the time of the 2021 census. When nearby Fort William First Nation is taken into account, along with other outlying communities, that number grows to 16,935. 

Thunder Bay city manager Norm Gale said the conclusions in the Well Living House studies reinforce long-standing suspicions of municipal leaders.

"We're cognizant that it's quite likely that our population is higher than what is being counted," he said.

"We're advocating particularly on the police funding file to the provincial government for more funding because of that. But if our population is higher than what is being counted, there are several financial and social issues that arise from that."

Many provincial funding formulas for municipal services are calculated relative to population.

Gale says if the province was to accept higher population projections, it would trigger a substantial increase for other strained services such as social housing and homelessness, court services, transit, and programs under the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund.

Northern Ontario municipal leaders who are feeling resource strain on their social services are rallying to have the province increase funding to recognize those people who spend long periods of time in cities to access services that are not available in their home communities but aren't counted in their official population.

In August, a Northern Policy Institute report analyzing homelessness, addictions, and mental health across the region recommended that municipalities lobby the province to codify what they call "northern service hubs," and commit to providing additional funding for those communities.

"This [study] is the kind of information we've been gathering and continue to use toward our argument of how much funding increases we need in order to develop these northern hubs," said Wendy Landry, the president of the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association.