If this Brampton gas plant expands production, can the city still meet its emissions targets?

The company behind one of Ontario's biggest privately owned gas plants wants to expand production, but critics say the environmental impacts aren't worth it. 

Capital Power, which owns the Goreway Power Station in Brampton's east end, is already projecting to more than double the amount of greenhouse gases it emits by 2032. 

Now, the company is seeking a 40-megawatt upgrade to its 875-megawatt facility, which requires the replacement of a variety of parts within the gas turbine. That upgrade would see the station pump out an additional 48,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases every year.

The request comes as four nuclear power units that supply nine per cent of Ontario's electricity are down for refurbishment, and as the demand for electricity in the province is projected to double over the next 25 years.

If approved, Ontario Clean Energy Alliance chair Jack Gibbons says the upgrade could jeopardize Brampton's goal of reducing corporate greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 — a target the city hopes to achieve through electrifying public transit and replacing natural gas with renewable natural gas sources. 

"This will mean more asthma attacks in Brampton and more climate damage everywhere," said Gibbons. 

The upgrades will improve the plant's efficiency at the same time as they increase its capacity to 4.5 per cent, according to a September environment review report from Capital Power. However, per that report, even with better efficiency, the Goreway Power station is still expected to release, on average, 1.4 million tonnes of emissions each year — 3.2 per cent higher than estimated if the upgrades do not go forward.

Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown said he shared his concerns about how the upgrade would impact the city's ability to meet its emissions targets with both Capital Power and the province.

The city is "getting different responses," he said. "It lacks clarity."

Brown says the province has presented the plant upgrades as an "emergency valve" that Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) can access during peak demand.

Gibbons and other critics continue to pressure the Brampton city council to pass a resolution rejecting the proposal, however Brown said, "it will be a provincial decision."

As IESO spokesperson Martin Holmsen explains it: there are currently "no like-for-like replacements with similar operating flexibility for natural gas generation."

That means the IESO is expecting to rely on natural gas to meet demand for electricity continuing into the 2030s.

Holmsen says strong economic development and the electrification of the broader economy are driving up demand by two per cent each year, and increasing regional needs. At the Goreway plant, capacity went from 12 per cent in 2017 up to 30 per cent in 2023.