How ridings in and around Vancouver could determine government on election night

It's rare that late-night vote counting in British Columbia matters in a federal election — but should it come to pass on Monday, a number of ridings in and around Vancouver could be crucial.

There are 13 ridings in Vancouver, the North Shore, Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities, and they could comprise the most politically unpredictable part of Western Canada this election.

Some ridings are highly unlikely to change hands, with long-time incumbents seeking re-election.

Liberal Hedy Fry is going for a 10th consecutive victory in Vancouver Centre, which she won two years ago by more than 10,000 votes. In Vancouver Quadra, Liberal candidate Joyce Murray is running again, after winning by more than 8,000 votes the last two elections. 

There are also four seats that seem quite safe for the NDP — Jenny Kwan is seeking re-election in Vancouver East after winning two years ago by more than 19,000 votes, while to the south, Don Davies is looking for a fifth term in Vancouver Kingsway, a riding he's won by at least 8,000 votes in each of the last three elections. 

In New Westminster-Burnaby, Peter Julian seeks a seventh term in office, and has comfortably won his last few bids for re-election, while in Burnaby South, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hopes to once again prevail.

With the NDP looking better in polls than they did two years ago, all are in a good position to retain their seats — and while Singh's victory was closer than the rest, it's incredibly rare for an established leader to lose in their local ridings, regardless of how well the party does nationally.