How Iran war could create ‘fertiliser shock’ – often ignored global risk to food prices, farming Premium

Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global fertiliser shock, threatening food security and increasing prices.

Tehran is moving to restrict – or effectively close – the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, as part of the latest escalation in the war involving Iran.

Markets have reacted to the global impact of closing this incredibly busy shipping channel, focusing on the risk to oil and gas flows, the prospect of higher crude prices and the inflationary pressures that would follow.

West Asia conflict oil hike, market reactions LIVE: U.S. urged India to buy Russian oil already at sea to ease supply fears

That concern is justified. But it captures only part of the story. A sustained disruption of traffic through Hormuz would not simply constitute an energy crisis.

It would also represent a fertiliser shock (where prices go up dramatically and supply goes down) – and, by extension, a direct risk to global food security.

Modern agriculture runs not only on sunlight and soil, but on natural gas. When German chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch developed their nitrogen fixation method in the early 20th century, they did more than just manufacture ammonia at scale.