How Doug Ford went from being a drag on his party to a major asset

When the Ontario Progressive Conservatives took control of the province in 2018, much of the credit for their victory was given to the former Liberal government's unpopular leader.

"The PC party did not win because of Doug Ford. The PC party won despite Doug Ford. They won because of [former Ontario premier] Kathleen Wynne," said Greg Lyle, a veteran pollster and president of Innovative Research Group.

Now, with current polling showing the Tories in the lead as Ontarians prepare to vote on June 2, Lyle said that "the size of the victory that we see at the moment, which may not last, is due to him."

Indeed, unlike his first two years in office, where he was a definite liability, says David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.

"Doug Ford went from being the least popular premier in Ontario before the pandemic, to being kind of in the middle, to right now, based on our polling, he's the most popular [provincial] leader in the province," Coletto said. 

"Today, there's no doubt he's an asset in which a significant number of people who may not normally vote Conservative — if these trends continue — will likely vote Conservative because Doug Ford is the leader of the party, not despite that he is," Coletto said.

This is not to say that Ford is beloved across the province or that he doesn't have a significant number of detractors. There are still large swaths of Ontario voters who don't support the PC leader — many who may still be angered by his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Yet there are also those who offer praise for him, analysts say, and, more importantly for Ford, have since moved on from the pandemic to other issues.

With most people in Ontario vaccinated and cases falling — and perhaps many resigned to live with COVID-19 — "people have short memories. We've kind of collectively moved past the pandemic," Coletto said.

"And so while there were times throughout that he made decisions or did things that really upset many people, at the end of the day, I think people, even in our polling, say he did OK at managing the pandemic. It wasn't for enough people a disqualifier."

Instead, the electorate now sees "a world where cost of living and inflation and interest rates are really creating, I think, a significant amount of anxiety for people," Coletto said.

"Doug Ford and the PCs — when we asked people who do you think is best on those issues — they're well ahead."

As the four major political party leaders prepare to square off on Monday night in their final debate, CBC's own Poll Tracker has the PCs on track to form another majority government. But the situation that Ford and his party find themselves in now is a far cry from just over a year ago.

Initially, Ford, like many other leaders, saw this popularity numbers soar in the early months of the pandemic. But eventually the Tories were criticized for imposing too many restrictions by some, too few by others, and accused of not having a plan. 

In April of last year during the third wave of the pandemic, Ford introduced a series of unpopular policy initiatives that included new policing powers and shutting down playgrounds. Following a public outcry, those policies were reversed, but they helped feed a narrative of an aimless government.