How climate change is making wildfires worse in normally mild and wet Atlantic Canada

Nova Scotia's record-breaking fires came as a shock in a region known for relatively mild and wet weather. But rather than being an anomaly, they are a sign of things to come for Atlantic Canada, experts say.

That's because of how climate change is disrupting the region's underlying weather patterns, and making it more prone to intense and longer fire seasons.

"People don't normally think of fire in the Maritimes or forest fire being a thing here," said Anthony Taylor, professor of forest management at the University of New Brunswick in Fredericton. 

"But instances like last week hit home the fact that it does occur here, and it can occur here in a big way."

The climate is changing the region in several significant ways — with hotter weather, less predictable rain, and more tropical storms — that overall have scientists forecasting fire-conducive weather patterns could double or triple in Atlantic Canada by 2080.

And while the fires the region will probably never be as large and dramatic as the vast wildfires in the country's western and northern forests, they will nonetheless threaten people and communities — as Halifax residents saw vividly when hundreds of homes in the city's periphery were damaged or destroyed.

"We're going to be living with fire and all this smoke in the air now and for many years to come," said Lynn Johnston, forest fire specialist with the federal government's Canadian Forest Service.

Like the rest of the Canada, Atlantic Canada is getting hotter because of human-caused climate change. According to projections, summer temperatures in the Maritime provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador could be 2-4 C above normal by 2050. 

But precipitation — rain and snow — will also change, with impacts on wildfire patterns.

Atlantic Canada is expected to remain wet, and the total amount of rain is expected to rise slightly — but the way it falls will become more uncertain, with a lot of precipitation at some times and dry spells at other times.

"If that precipitation doesn't come regularly and we have these persistent hot, dry and windy spells that stick around for a long time, that's a big problem for fire activity," said Johnston, whose research focuses on climate change and how it is impacting forest fire patterns across Canada.

"Because once that fire starts, if it's hot, dry and windy for a week, two weeks or longer, that's really, really, really good weather for fires to burn."

That could lead to longer fire seasons, she said, and the fires within those longer seasons being more intense and unmanageable.

In general, forests in the Atlantic region are less prone to fire than other parts of Canada. That's because they have a mix of tree species — deciduous, which shed their leaves in the fall, and evergreen.