How a U.S. weather agency tries to combat 'do-it-yourself' Lake Erie algae bloom forecasts
CBC
Predicting the weather long-term is never an easy or bulletproof task, no matter the available science and technology. But what about forecasting the health of a lake, based on the weather and environment, months prior?
That's what scientists continue to do each year for Lake Erie — specifically the western basin — as it relates to summer algal blooms.
Based on two months of spring data collected across the watershed, U.S. scientists suggest mild-to-moderate sized blooms in that area of the lake.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a bloom severity range for Lake Erie of two to 4.5 on a scale of one to 10, similar to the last three years.
"Through the spring, conditions have been relatively dry except for a large precipitation and associated river discharge event in early April and another moderate precipitation event in early May," NOAA said in its spring bulletin.
On the Canadian side, from a boat on the lake, scientists have launched what they hope will soon be an early warning system.
Ohio's Maumee River is the main culprit for phosphorus runoff from farms making its way into the lake and causing algae blooms.
Near normal precipitation and river discharge are currently predicted for the remainder of the season (May to July). A more comprehensive seasonal forecast will be issued by NOAA at the end of June.
NOAA oceanographer Richard Stumpf's office studies satellite imagery of the blooms — once they begin — on a daily basis.
Canadian coastal communities such as Leamington would be most affected from mild-to-moderate algae blooms in the lake, he says, along with parts of Michigan and Ohio.
"[If mild] it's possible some probably aren't going to get much on the Ontario coast at all," Stumpf said. "That's the good news."
According to Stumpf, NOAA puts out an early algal bloom forecast for western Lake Erie because there's enough collected data.
"Quite honestly, we found if we didn't do it there would be a lot of do-it-yourself forecasts. Like every time it rains, literally … people would say we're going to have a bloom because it rained."
"We have enough confidence that we will be in the right neighbourhood."
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