Here's what the federal election results mean for Doug Ford and Ontario

If you're a backer of either the Liberals or the Conservatives, you can read the Ontario results in the federal election in both optimistic and pessimistic ways. 

For Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals, the pessimistic view is that a poorer-than-expected showing in Ontario is precisely what kept him from forming a majority government. 

The Liberals lost a string of ridings in the Greater Toronto Area that they had held for the past three straight elections, and Liberal incumbents also went down to defeat in places with notable working class populations such as Hamilton, Windsor and Sudbury. 

The optimistic view is that taking 69 seats in Ontario is vastly better than what the Liberals were expecting just four months ago when Justin Trudeau was still leading the party — and it helped them win the election. 

For Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, the optimistic view is that the party upped its seat count in Ontario by a dozen, making inroads in those above-mentioned places where the Liberals lost, suggesting he has broadened his party's appeal with suburbanites and blue collar workers. 

That positive spin is tarnished by the Conservatives' fourth straight election loss, by Poilievre's own defeat in the Ottawa-area riding he'd held for 20 years and by lingering questions about whether he'd have won by more closely following the campaign playbook employed by Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives to win their third straight majority. 

So, if you're the Ontario premier, what do you see in this new political landscape? Perhaps an opportunity to leverage things you want from the federal government for your province and to gain even more backing for the agenda you've just set out during your election victory.

Laryssa Waler, a Conservative strategist and a former director of communications for the premier, note Ford and Carney already have a good relationship.

"Doug Ford is an excellent negotiator," said Waler. "He is willing to make a deal as long as he thinks it's for the best interest of Ontario, and that I think that's what we're going to see with the Carney government." 

"I think that they're going to work well together when they're taking on Donald Trump, when they're working on priority projects and getting other premiers on side. I think Mark Carney's probably going to lean on Doug Ford a lot for that," Waler said. 

The pair sat down for breakfast just a few days after Carney won the Liberal leadership, a notable contrast from Ford's strained relationship with Poilievre, who had not spoken to the premier during his two and a half years as Conservative leader until a pre-campaign phone call last month.

Karl Baldauf, a former senior adviser to the Ontario PC government, now partner at the public affairs firm McMillan Vantage, says the Ford and Carney governments share similar views on a number of key issues, including protecting the auto industry and expanding the production of critical minerals. 

"Doug Ford in his time as premier of this province has demonstrated that he is a very pragmatic politician. He's willing to work with anyone to get his agenda through," Baldauf said in an interview. 

"He has established with Mr. Carney a strong working relationship over the last few months, and I think you can only expect that will continue and perhaps enhance over the coming years," said Baldauf.