Here's what COVID-19 numbers will look like in Hamilton if people stop wearing masks

Slowly pumping the brakes on COVID-19 remediation measures between now and February, instead of keeping all the measures in place, would mean a difference of about 973 cases in Hamilton.

That's according to a new forecast from the city, which says if rules around masking and capacity limits remain, Hamilton will see 1,676 new cases by February. If those measures trickle to an end by that time, the city will see 2,654 cases of COVID-19, the data shows. And if the measures are lifted and the majority of kids 12 and under get vaccinated, that number drops to 2,541.

These numbers come as public health officials shift to figuring out how to ease rules and get life back to normal with COVID-19 as part of our long-term reality, says Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, medical officer of health. But people need to be patient as communities find the right balance.

"We're working all that through as we go," she said. "We're going to continue to need the science, and we're going to continue to need the patience of the community as we walk through this process and see what works."

Hamilton has only seen 32 new cases of COVID-19 since Friday, public health data shows. The city's numbers have been relatively stable since the third week of October.

At Monday's meeting, epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson outlined three scenarios. The first is if masking and capacity limits remain at 70 per cent by Jan. 31. The second is masking being reduced to 60 per cent by the end of the year, and eliminated entirely by March. The third is lifting the measures while vaccinating the majority of kids 12 and under.

Sanderson's data shows that under the second scenario, 13 more people will die with the virus by the end of January, and 77 per cent of those patients will be older than 60. New cases could peak at 40 per day, she said.

Her data also shows that under scenario one, there would likely be 129 more hospital admissions between now and the spring, compared to 202 under scenario two.

"While we continue to be cautiously optimistic, the forecasts indicate that we must temper this optimism with the awareness we must continue to actively navigate the delicate balance of reopening with controlling the spread of COVID-19," Sanderson said. 

In Hamilton, 85.6 per cent of residents have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 82.2 per cent are fully vaccinated. Because of that, even when numbers increase, "severe outcomes are likely to be modest," Sanderson said.

Hamilton's encouraging numbers come at a time when infections are on the rise in most parts of Ontario. Last week, the Ministry of Health paused further lifting of capacity limits for remaining high-risk settings such as night clubs and bathhouses. 

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