Haley’s High Point Is Likely To Be In New Hampshire’s Mountains

The Granite State has qualities that make it uniquely receptive to the former South Carolina governor, but a win there could have a limited impact in later contests.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s rise in New Hampshire has been nothing short of remarkable. In late August, an average of polls had her getting about 4% of the vote. Those same polls now show her with nearly 31% support.

Her rapid rise, however, has still left her some 13 percentage points shy of former President Donald Trump, who romped with 51% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses earlier this week. The gap between her and the GOP front-runner raises questions about her ability to turn a coronation ceremony for Trump into a truly contested primary for the GOP nomination.

It’s not hard to see why the Granite State is ripe terrain for Haley, who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations. A purple battleground state, New Hampshire is among the least religious states in the country and the most highly educated, making it a hub for exactly the kind of affluent Republican, libertarian and independent voters most likely to find Haley’s establishment bearing, calm demeanor, and comparative moderation on social and cultural views appealing. Its open primary system leads to higher turnout, and welcomes independents and even crossover Democrats to cast ballots.

“You’re not just getting ideological voters,” said Andrew Smith, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. “You’re getting regular folks who come out to vote.”

The problem for Haley is that very few other states are like New Hampshire: Most are either demographically distinct or operate with closed primaries, denying her the support of independent voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is making a last-ditch argument to voters that disqualifies her as a viable alternative to Trump.