GTA gas prices are up. U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict expected to drive them higher

Gas prices in the Greater Toronto Area jumped six cents on Wednesday, with experts warning more increases are expected in the days ahead due to the U.S. and Israel-Iran war.

Prices went up from 137.9 cents per litre to 143.9 cents per litre on Wednesday morning, according to the Canadians for Affordable Energy website. 

Meanwhile, the Canadian Automobile Association reported that the national average went up four cents to 138.1 cents per litre on Wednesday. 

“Oil prices jumped immediately after the sort of invasion was launched,” said Warren Mabee, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen’s University. 

He said prices went up about seven per cent “across the board” globally and expects they’ll continue to increase if the conflict continues.

"That's ridiculous. That's too much," said Toronto resident Malik Campbell, adding it's hard to hold off on paying for gas when it's necessary for daily travel.

"But it's something you have to prepare for, especially if you have to use premium," Campbell said. "It's unfortunate."

The increase in prices will vary across the country, as some places will be “more insulated” if they have more supply on hand, Mabee said. 

“What really matters is how long the conflict goes on as to whether those prices will go up much more or whether they'll stabilize and maybe start to decline again,” he told CBC Radio’s Metro Morning. 

“We can expect probably a five to 10 per cent rise in gas prices just over the next little while.” 

The rise in prices comes as oil markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to oil tankers accessing the Strait of Hormuz, which experts say is one of the world's busiest and most important naval shipping routes.

“About one-fifth of the world's oil will pass through that straight at some point. So even a brief slowdown in shipping through that straight can result in a bump to prices,” said Mabee. 

While there hasn't been any immediate disruption to supply, the U.S.-Iran conflict could lead to further volatility and higher premiums given the geopolitical risks at play, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Several oil tankers passing through the strait were hit by projectiles and drones over the weekend, though it isn't clear from which side of the conflict. As of Sunday, more than 150 commercial vessels had dropped anchor in the Persian Gulf to avoid collateral damage.