Great Lakes water levels are in flux. New research looks at how and if that could cause local earthquakes

The Great Lakes Climate Change Project is a joint initiative between CBC's Ontario stations to explore climate change from a provincial lens. Darius Mahdavi, a scientist with a degree in conservation biology and immunology and a minor in environmental biology from the University of Toronto, explains how issues related to climate change affect people, and explores solutions, especially in smaller cities and communities.

Earlier this month, parts of southern Ontario felt an earthquake that struck close to the nearby city of Buffalo, N.Y. 

"I woke up to it … I felt what I guess you would consider a small jolt and continuous shaking … about 15 to 20 seconds," St. Catharines, Ont., resident Stephen Murdoch told CBC Hamilton the morning of Feb. 6.

Earthquakes Canada monitored the magnitude 4.3 quake and said there were no reports of damage.

In another part of the world the same day, an unrelated, devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Turkey and Syria. The death toll has surpassed 40,000.

But while earthquakes in Ontario do not typically cause loss of life, they're more common than you might think, say scientists. 

Earthquakes, especially major ones, are caused by movement of tectonic plates, and scientists are constantly investigating the many factors that can lead to local seismic activity. 

Contributing factors include human activities such as mining, the injection of wastewater underground, and dam reservoirs that experience rapid and intense fluctuations in water level.

Now, scientists are investigating whether natural water level fluctuations — such as those brought on by climate change — correlate with regional seismic activity.

The research indicates some promising results in other locations, but scientists say more needs to be done to understand that correlation, and earthquakes in the Great Lakes area. 

Most Ontario residents have likely never felt an earthquake because while dozens of seismic events occur each year, only a handful reach a magnitude that can be felt. 

Fault systems (the most common place for stress in the planet's crust to be released) around the Great Lakes are relatively inactive, according to experts. This is why we see fewer and less serious earthquakes than places on plate boundaries, like B.C. and California, or Turkey and Syria. 

However, minor earthquakes in Ontario aren't anything out of the ordinary, said Alexander Peace, a structural geologist at McMaster University in Hamilton. 

"Magnitude 3 [earthquakes are] quite common around here in the Great Lakes."