Future of Arctic Council in doubt after end of Russian chairship

Russia's two-year term as chair of the Arctic Council came to an end Thursday, leaving the future of the council's role as a forum for international collaboration in doubt. 

In a low-key virtual ceremony attended by senior bureaucrats, Russia ceded the chair to Norway, which will lead the council for the next two years.

The style of the ceremony marked a shift for the council. The transfer of the chair is an opportunity for grand declarations and photo ops, as the foreign ministers of the eight Arctic countries mingle with Indigenous representatives and powerhouse observers like China and Japan.

It's obvious what has changed — one year into its chairship, Russia went from problematic partner to international pariah with its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"The idea of sitting with the Russians and talking about economic development while they're bombing Kyiv — it just doesn't work," said Evan Bloom, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center's Polar Institute and a former diplomat who helped establish the Arctic Council in 1996.

Since March 2022, the seven other Arctic states — Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Canada and the United States — have suspended their co-operation with Russia, bringing a sudden stop to the majority of the work of the Arctic Council.

Though some projects have since resumed without Russia, the future of the council's work is in doubt. How can the Arctic Council continue when, in the words of the incoming chair, co-operation with Moscow is "politically impossible"?

"Right now, it leaves the concept somewhat in tatters," said Bloom. "Russia makes up about half the Arctic. You can't really have an Arctic Council without Russia."

The Arctic Council was formed amid a climate of optimism that followed the end of the Cold War. 

Founded in 1996, the Council brings together the eight Arctic states with six Indigenous groups and dozens of observers to work in the spirit of consensus on issues facing the Arctic.

Despite the Arctic's role as a Cold War theatre, from its beginnings, the council's guiding documents prohibited any discussion of military security, which risked driving a rift between the Arctic nations.

"It was understood that if a body like this touched security issues… it would not go very well," said Bloom.

That allowed the council to focus on other, more pressing Arctic concerns, like climate change, fisheries, sustainable development and Indigenous representation.

Over the next two decades, this helped give rise to an idea of "Arctic exceptionalism" — that the region was an arena for benevolent co-operation, immune to the geopolitical struggles occurring in the rest of the world.