From umbrella to uncertainty: Europe and Canada's nuclear deterrence anxiety
CBC
Normally, it's considered a good thing when the world beats a path to your door.
Maybe not so much when we're talking about nuclear deterrence.
At the very least, it is an ominous sign of the times.
Although little has been said publicly, several Western allies are now apparently elbowing each other to shelter under France's nuclear arsenal.
While the sentiment is more prominent in Europe, it's clear Canada cannot be excluded from the slow-burning crisis of confidence among allies about whether the United States can still be relied upon to live up to its long-standing formal guarantees — through NATO — of nuclear protection.
There is no authoritative official count showing the specific countries that have formally requested a direct nuclear deterrence guarantee from France's nuclear arsenal.
Unlike the United States, the French government does not currently extend formal nuclear guarantees.
What we do know is Poland and now Germany have quietly acknowledged they're talking with France on nuclear deterrence co-operation.
In a statement on Jan. 29, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged Berlin was in talks with Paris to explore deeper co-operation on deterrence, including the role of French nuclear forces in protecting European allies.
"These talks are in their very early stages," Merz said in Berlin in response to a question on the matter. "We know that we have to make some strategic and military-political decisions here, but again, the time is not yet ripe for that. We are holding strategic talks on this issue with the countries involved."
Merz was quick to paint the dialogue and possible inclusion in France's nuclear deterrence as complementary to the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
French President Emmanuel Macron has signalled he's open to discussing an expanded role for France's nuclear forces with European partners, but wouldn't commit to a formal extended "nuclear umbrella" like that provided by the United States under NATO.
At the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Macron reiterated the urgency for Europe to become a "geopolitical power" and begin consultations with key partners — including Germany and the United Kingdom — on reshaping collective defence, including nuclear deterrence considerations.
Macron said he's committed to launching a strategic dialogue with allies this year.
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