Finland’s bid to join NATO

What does Finland’s entry into NATO mean for Russia and the European Union? Will the move escalate the security crisis?

“ The Lord’s our shepherd”, says the Psalm

But just in case, we better get a bomb!’

-Tom Lehrer, Who’s next?

The story so far: The strategic geopolitical ambiguity of Finland has finally come to a halt and taken a hard turn as Finland formally announced its intention of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This marks the culmination of a series of veiled comments by Finland hinting their intention of joining NATO. The Finnish President  Sauli Niinistö along with the Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy announced their bid for NATO membership on Sunday. They would now send their recommendation to the Parliament where it is expected to pass through without any roadblocks.

The last two odd decades have seen Finland revise its outlook of global geopolitics and order but rarely have their different heads of state overtly signalled their shift. This ambiguity has allowed them to not only improve their ties with rest of the Europe post 2000 but also go back to increasing trade ties with Russia during the European economic slump. Their actions post the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of a more integrated European Union indicate their preference for having their cake and eating it too. This is set to change and has been brought about by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The Finnish security concerns began to heighten post the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and have snow-balled now into an immediate existential crisis of sorts after the recent Russian assault on Ukraine.

The last joint statement by the Finnish President and Prime Minister Sanna Marin put it in no ambiguous terms that “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay”. This was followed by the official Finnish declaration of a NATO bid on Sunday. This tectonic shift is likely to have significant ramifications for the entire European continent. The last few days also saw Russian Defence Committee deputy chair, Aleksey Zhuravlyov, discuss Russia nuking Europe and question the very existence of Finland on Russian state television which bears similarities to their justification for the Ukrainian invasion. Mr. Zhuravlyov also threated the Finns with the use of Kinzhal-class ballistic missiles boasting how it “will reach Finland in 20 seconds, or even 10 seconds”. RAO Nordic (a subsidiary of Inter RAO which is a major energy company in Russia), citing delayed payments from Finland, cut off electricity supply to Finland. The Finns seem to be hopeful that Sweden, the Baltic nations, and their own energy sources can help fill the void. There also seems to be a concerted effort from sections of the western media to create a sense of panic in Finland which has been decried by Finnish nationals. Mr. Niinistö spoke with the U.S. President Joe Biden and the Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson discussing their “next steps towards NATO membership”.

Official voices from within Russia give a sense of how they perceive the U.S’s role as an agent provocateur trying to lure other countries towards NATO. The Russian state seems to be going through a sense of mania where officials talk about nuking countries, ‘crushing bugs’ (referring to the Baltic states), and invading countries in a bid to safeguard their security. Finland’s formal declaration and Sweden’s interest in joining NATO has aggravated their security dilemma. We see the manifestation of Waltzian realism unravelling in front of us as nations begin to grapple with their existential crises precipitated by the anarchic structure of the world and actions of other states aimed towards their security goals.