Doug Ford's pre-election budget bets on big infrastructure spending — while running deficits

Ontario's Progressive Conservatives released their pre-election budget on Thursday, pitching big spending on infrastructure and promising tax breaks for some workers and seniors — while running deficits for the next several years.

Many of the major commitments in the 268-page document were previously announced by Premier Doug Ford's government ahead of the looming election campaign, set to begin on May 4. There is not enough time to pass the budget before the Legislature dissolves next week, so the document serves as a costed platform for the PCs.

The core themes of the record $198.6-billion fiscal plan include improving and expanding critical infrastructure, rebuilding the economy in the wake of COVID-19, helping families with the rising cost of living and ensuring the province is prepared for any further waves of the pandemic.

You can read the full budget document at the bottom of this story.

The budget was tabled at Queen's Park by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, who called it "Premier Ford's vision for Ontario."

"We have to rebuild this economy. We have to grow those jobs," he told reporters.

Asked if the PCs would table an identical budget if they are re-elected on June 2 , Bethlenfalvy did not explicitly commit to doing so, but said that it is the party's campaign platform and it is up to voters whether they accept it.

"We are going to go through the election, we are going to listen to the people of Ontario," he said.

While Bethlenfalvy gave his budget speech in the Legislature, Ford's director of communications sought to set the record straight on social media.

"This is the budget [Ford] will reintroduce if re-elected. Full stop," Ivana Yelich tweeted.

The budget includes significantly revised deficit projections, with the government forecasting a potential path back to balance by 2027/2028, two years earlier than estimated in 2021's budget.

The Ministry of Finance said the province ran a deficit of $13.5 billion for the fiscal year that just ended, more than $19 billion below the 2021 outlook. While the pandemic injected considerable uncertainty into the province's fiscal outlook, Ford's government has consistently overestimated annual deficits throughout its tenure at Queen's Park.

The government projects the deficit will balloon to $19.9 billion for 2022/2023 before falling to $12.3 billion in 2023/2024 and $7.6 billion by 2025. Those forecasts are based on a "medium growth scenario," with actual outcomes dependent on Ontario's economic condition in coming years.

The PCs say they would plan to spend about nine per cent more this year than during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and also run a higher deficit. Spending in key sectors would increase, on average, about five per cent annually for the next three years.