Doug Ford's government drops new Ontario budget today. Here's what to watch for

Premier Doug Ford's government tables its post-election budget Thursday, as Ontario's export-focused economy confronts the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Ford's Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is due to deliver the spending plan in the Legislature at 4 p.m.

You can watch CBC Toronto's live coverage of the budget in this story, stream it on the CBC Toronto channel on CBC Gem or your smart TV, or listen to it across the province on CBC Radio, all from 4 to 5 p.m.

Here's what to watch for in the 2025 Ontario budget.  

The word "tariff" did not appear even once in the 221-page budget document that Bethlenfalvy tabled last year. You are guaranteed it will be used a whole bunch of times in today's version. 

Ford says his government has had to look at the 2025 budget "through a different lens" as a result of the tariffs. All the signals suggest that lens is focused squarely on big spending on infrastructure. 

"You have two options in a budget. You can start cutting and slashing, which I've never believed in," Ford told a news conference Wednesday. "You have to put money into the economy to keep things going." 

His government has already announced what looks poised to be the single-biggest tariff response item in the 2025 budget: allowing businesses to defer about $9 billion in provincial taxes for up to six months.

Another measure Ford promised during the election campaign is yet to be officially announced: a $5-billion fund dubbed the Protect Ontario Account, described in the PC platform as a way to help major industries adapt to tariffs and keep workers employed.      

Watch for the Ford government to frame just about every new budget measure — and perhaps even some old ones — as a tariff response. The PCs pushed this narrative throughout the election campaign, claiming that everything from banning traffic congestion charges to building a tunnel under Highway 401 would protect Ontario from the impact of tariffs.

The first budget after an election win usually looks a lot like the winning party's election campaign platform. Bethlenfalvy is almost certainly eager to move forward immediately on many of the key platform promises the PCs made in the run-up to their majority win. 

The surprises could come by way of absence (such as failing to put a key election promise into the budget) or with the presence of something unexpected that Ford didn't talk about during the campaign. 

Watch out for any examples of non-budgetary measures that are tacked on to the budget legislation. The government has done this in the past, most notably in 2019 when the budget bill included clauses empowering provincial inspectors to fine gas stations up to $10,000 per day for not displaying stickers about the cost of the federal carbon tax.  

Because the budget document just gives the big picture of overall spending within each ministry, the specifics of any cuts are sometimes not totally apparent on budget day. For that, you may have to wait until agencies that receive provincial funding are notified, or until the government tables what are called the estimates, a line-by-line breakdown of program spending.