Doug Ford prepares to unveil 8th Ontario budget amid economic uncertainty

Politicians return to Queen’s Park Monday for a shortened spring session, as Premier Doug Ford prepares to unveil his eight budget amid heightened global economic uncertainty.

The legislature returns a month later than usual after the Progressive Conservatives delayed the resumption of the session. The Tories will kick off the sitting by outlining their annual spending plan on Thursday.

Experts say the budget comes at a time of heightened economic volatility because of the war in Iran, continued U.S. tariffs and stubbornly high unemployment in Ontario that has been steadily rising since mid-2023.

Ford says his focus this session — and that of his spending plan — will be on protecting the economy, a continuation of the theme that helped him win a third straight majority government a year ago.

“It's all about protecting communities, protecting their jobs,” Ford said last week. “It's about the economy, making sure people can bring home a paycheque. It's absolutely critical.” 

“And this tariff fight isn't over,” he added. 

It’s not immediately clear if the spring budget will contain another round of tariff relief measures. In the 2025 budget, the province pledged $14 billion, most in the form of tax deferrals to provide cash flow to companies hard-hit by the tariffs.

The tariffs have had an impact on the economy, with tens of thousands of layoffs in the auto, steel and aluminum sectors. 

Ontario’s former chief economist Brian Lewis said he expects the government will build in a large contingency fund to the budget in an effort to address the global uncertainty. In the 2025 budget, the government included a $2-billion contingency to provide flexibility, in addition to the tariff relief measures.

"I think one of the key things I will be looking for in the budget next week is how much of a prudence cushion have they worked in,” Lewis said, pointing to the continued tariffs and tense CUSMA renegotiations set for the summer.

“I think they would be well-served by being explicitly quite prudent in this budget," Lewis.

Contingency planning will hem the government in on its plan to balance the budget by 2027-2028, Lewis said.

Last year, Ontario ran a deficit over $13.5 billion and is projected to be nearly $8 billion in the red this year, before the government says it will return to the black next year.

Lewis doesn’t see the province sticking to its path to balance given the global volatility.