Despite deal with China, Manitoba producers in no rush to ramp up canola production

If you’re driving through rural Manitoba next summer, you might not see a big increase in the number of golden flowering fields adjacent to the highways, according to some provincial canola producers.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first deal on trade since taking office last year was announced Friday in Beijing, and it will see up to 49,000 Chinese EVs into the Canadian market — at a 6.1 per cent tariff — in exchange for China dropping duties on some canola products.

Carney called it a “preliminary but landmark agreement,” though Manitoba farmer Carl Stewart doesn’t necessarily see it that way.

Stewart grows wheat, canola and soybeans on his 2,300-hectare (5,800-acre) farm east of Poplar Point, Man. — about 30 kilometres east of Portage la Prairie — and says the agreement is “welcome news,” but isn’t set in stone.

“We’re cautiously optimistic, but I can’t help but stress about this,” he said.

Stewart called it a “complicated situation” that Canada now finds itself in with China, simply because of trade turbulence Canada has been experiencing with the U.S. 

While tariffs on his canola crops will drop from 84 per cent to 15 per cent, he’s not jumping on the phone and calling to order more canola seeds for spring planting. 

“We don't really subscribe to the mentality of trying to beat the markets. We just follow more of an agronomic rotation … because like our ability to predict what's going on in the markets, it's a fool's errand,” Stewart said.

“It’s just not going to happen.”

The Canadian canola industry annually contributes an average of $43.7 billion to the national economy, with exports to China in totalling $4.9 billion in 2024, according to the Canola Council of Canada.

While he hopes this trade deal with China is the trade of good things to come, Stewart believes the best thing for Manitoba canola producers is for their products to be sent south of the border.

“The U.S. is our largest trading partner by a decent margin. We need to shore up those relationships. That's kind of front and centre at the moment,” he said.

“Canada has a lot to offer. A lot of American firms want our products. We just kind of need both governments to get out of the way and let people get back to doing business with each other. That's all that we want.”

Mark Reimer won’t be one to chase market prices on canola.