Data | Claims of peace in Jammu and Kashmir, amid continuing terror-related deaths Premium

in Kashmir four years since J&K's special status revoked, data shows high militant deaths & Internet shutdowns. Affidavit filed by Centre claims "unprecedented peace, progress & prosperity" post Article 370 dilution. SATP data shows high militant deaths & Internet shutdowns, Poonch & Rajouri districts recording 50% of all terrorism-related deaths. Report by Forum for Human Rights in J&K mentions resurgence of militancy in Jammu region.

A month ago, on July 10, the Centre filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court which said that since 2019, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has been witnessing an “unprecedented era of peace, progress and prosperity” after the dilution of Article 370. The affidavit quoted some numbers to back this claim. A table showed the number of “terrorist initiated instances” had come down, from 228 in 2018 to 125 in 2022. Neither the source of data nor the definition of “terrorist initiated instances” was mentioned in the affidavit. There was no mention of the number of civilian or militant deaths in the affidavit. Rather, data of “organised stone-throwing incidents connected with terrorism-separatist agenda”, were cited. The affidavit also quoted the number of bandh/hartals in support of the claim. Last Saturday marked four years since Jammu and Kashmir’s special status was revoked by the Centre. On that day, Former J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti and other leaders of her party were put under house arrest. J&K National Conference spokesperson Imran Nabi Dar said the party office was sealed.

Moreover, in just the first week of August, three militants and three security personnel had died in terrorism-related incidents. In fact, data from South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), which sources fatalities data from credible news agencies and dailies, show that the number of militant deaths has remained high since the major inflection point in 2016 when Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was killed.

Chart 1 | The chart shows terrorism-related incidents of killing and deaths of civilians, militants and security forces between 2009 and 2022

Chart appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode.

The number of militant deaths, in the post-dilution period, is nearly double that of the relatively calmer years of 2011 to 2015 and similar to the 2016-2018 levels which saw Kashmir on the boil again.

While the number of civilian deaths in terror incidents is trending downwards since the peak in 2018, 30 people still died in 2022, a number that is higher than in 2012 (19 civilian deaths), 2013 (19), 2014 (28), 2015 (19) and 2016 (14). In 2021, 36 civilians died, while in 2020, 33 such fatalities were recorded. In 2021, 45 security personnel died, and 30 in 2022. In 2011 and 2012, the corresponding numbers were 31 and 1, respectively. SATP data also show that there were 51 attacks on the Central Reserve Police Force, between August 2019 and December 2022, as against 22 attacks between August 2012 and December 2015.

Chart 2 | The chart shows the number of Internet shutdowns between 2012 and 2022