Conservatives confirmed Poilievre's leadership. Can he regain the moment?

To understand the rise and stall of Pierre Poilievre, consider two polls conducted roughly three-and-a-half years apart.

In September 2022, days after Poilievre became Conservative leader, Abacus Data found that 35 per cent of Canadians were inclined to vote for Poilievre's party, giving the Conservatives a five-point lead over the Liberals. Canadians were not exactly falling for Poilievre — 34 per cent said they had a negative impression of him and 29 per cent said they had a positive view. But the Conservative leader was at least less disliked than his Liberal rival. 

In the fall of 2022, 49 per cent of Canadians disapproved of the Liberal government and just 37 per cent approved. Forty-eight per cent of Canadians had a negative view of the prime minister of the day — Justin Trudeau — and just 33 per cent had a positive view.

Flash forward to late January 2026 and a new Abacus poll. 

Support for the Conservative Party is actually four points higher than it was in September 2022. And 38 per cent of Canadians say they now have a positive view of Poilievre.

But the share of Canadians who have a negative impression of the Conservative leader has also increased — Abacus finds 44 per cent of Canadians take a dim view of Poilievre. And the public's view of the government has flipped.

Fifty-four per cent of Canadians now approve of the federal government's performance and just 31 per cent disapprove. Fifty-three per cent have a positive view of the prime minister — Mark Carney — and just 30 per cent have a negative view.

And while 39 per cent of Canadians are still inclined to vote Conservative, if an election had been held in late January, 43 per cent of Canadians would have voted Liberal.

When Conservatives chose Poilievre in September 2022, the moment was primed for him. And from then until roughly a year ago, it seemed he was the man for the moment. 

And then the moment changed.

On the weekend that Conservative Party members recommitted to Poilievre, the hope seemed to be that the moment could still come back to him.

The speech Poilievre delivered in Calgary on Friday night cast the Conservative leader in a slightly different light, but it did not display a whole new version of him. Poilievre still expressed his opposition to "identity politics" and "political correctness," but he seemed a little more self-contained and more optimistic in tone — "hope" was the buzzword of his remarks.

But substantively, this was not a marked departure from the Poilievre that Canadians saw in 2024 or during the 2025 election campaign. Not that a pivot ever should have been expected. 

Poilievre would no doubt argue that many of the concerns he focused on in 2024 remain worthy of concern now — the cost of living, housing prices, crime. And Poilievre has been very clear about who he is and how he views politics, particularly when it comes to his bedrock view that government spending and regulation generally do more harm than good.