China Q3 GDP growth tops forecasts but meaningful rebound elusive
The Hindu
Helped by a raft of government measures, gross domestic product of the world's second-biggest economy expanded 3.9% in July-September from a year earlier
China's economy rebounded at a faster-than-anticipated clip in the third quarter, but a more robust revival in the longer term will be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risks.
Helped by a raft of government measures, gross domestic product of the world's second-biggest economy expanded 3.9% in July-September from a year earlier, official data showed on October 24, outstripping the 3.4% pace forecast in a Reuters poll and faster than the 0.4% growth in the second quarter.
But towards the end of the quarter, domestic demand again waned as a summer flare-up in coronavirus cases led to lockdowns and curbs, while export growth slowed and the key property sector further cooled, pointing to a fraught path to recovery.
Further clouding the outlook, China looks set to continue with its ultra-strict COVID-19 policies endorsed by the ruling Communist Party, which wrapped up its top leadership reshuffle on Sunday with Xi Jinping securing his third term at its helm.
The new line-up of China's top governing body has heightened fears among investors President Xi will double down on ideology-driven policies at the cost of economic growth.
"There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future, and we don't expect any meaningful relaxation before 2024," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
"Recurring virus disruptions will therefore continue to weigh on in-person activity and further large-scale lockdowns can't be ruled out."