Calgary is Canada's second most vulnerable city to U.S. tariffs, says report

Calgary is one of the most tariff-vulnerable cities in Canada, falling behind only Saint John, N.B., according to new analysis conducted by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Using Statistics Canada trade data, the chamber developed an index to model two key point: a city's dependence on the U.S. as a key export destination, and its U.S. export intensity.

That index found that, of Canada's 41 biggest cities, the three most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs are Saint John, Calgary and Windsor. Lethbridge is 10th on the list.

"President Trump's tariffs are going to have significant consequences for the global economy, but they're also going to have a disproportionate impact on various Canadian cities, and for some, the impact is going to be higher, and that's really going to hit home," said Pascal Chan, the chamber's vice-president of strategic policy and supply chains.

"Calgary is a key hub that depends on a stable Canada-U.S. relationship, and this disruption puts a lot of jobs and investments at real risk."

Chan said Calgary's exports of crude oil, natural gas and beef to the United States are why the city is so high on the list. Calgary exports over $119 billion worth of goods to the U.S. each year, from 1,887 exporters, according to the report.

The goal of the report is to give governments and businesses the information they need to respond to what's likely to come, said Chan.

Canada is now just over a week into a 30-day reprieve from U.S. tariffs on goods. However, on Monday, Trump slapped a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries — including Canada.

Already, companies in that industry in and around Calgary are bracing for the impact.

Mayor Jyoti Gondek said she was surprised to learn from the report that Calgary sends 97 per cent of its exports to the United States.

"I think it's important to recognize the situation that we find ourselves in.… We know we have a good trade relationship with the United States, but to know that 97 per cent of our exports go there — that's a pretty stark figure," said Gondek.

Carlo Dade, director of trade and trade infrastructure with the Canada West Foundation, said the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's report is another piece of evidence that Calgary will be hit particularly hard by tariffs.

But he said there are still many unknowns about the impact, partly because they're difficult to measure.

"Will [tariffs] come back at 25 per cent? Will there be a last-minute change? The other significant variable that's almost impossible to model is duration," said Dade.