Birth numbers in N.L. stagnant in 2021, a trend 'almost impossible' to reverse, say experts

The number of annual deaths in Newfoundland and Labrador outweighed births last year, adding to a data trend that population experts say will be almost impossible to break.

According to numbers provided by the provincial government's vital statistics division, the province recorded 3,838 births in 2021 — an increase of 193 from 2020's all-time low in 2020 — and 5,169 deaths, a difference of 1,331.

Newfoundland and Labrador's fertility and birth rates have been dropping year over year since the 1980s, when the province had one of the highest fertility rates in the country, according to Jamie Ward, who manages the Regional Analytics Lab at Memorial University's Harris Centre, which studies population demographics and public policy.

"There is a very long-term established trend in the province, sort of based on our lower-than-replacement-level fertility rates," Ward told CBC News earlier this month.

"When you have that for a long time and you have an aging of the population … you have fewer and fewer child-bearing-age women. You would also expect, everything else being equal, to have fewer and fewer babies, especially given some of the economic head winds and whatnot."

Ward said the province's fertility rate has dropped in recent years to about 1.5 births per woman of child-bearing age, well below the level needed to maintain a population, just over two births per woman.

External provincial factors play a part, said Ward, including a higher cost of living, underdeveloped rural areas and a lack of jobs, some which prompt some people to leave the province for other opportunities.

"We have a long history of net interprovincial outmigration, where loads and loads of people, in the thousands per year historically for a very long time, we've lost … predominantly young people to other provinces," he said. "So when youre core child-bearing population is leaving for an extended period of time, that definitely starts to factor in."

Laura Doyle of Bay Bulls says she's been lucky enough to keep her family in the province, but realizes not everyone has the same opportunity.

"A number of people, in Newfoundland especially, work away from home," Doyle said. "There's a lot of families where one person is gone almost half the year, so it definitely makes it a lot more work on the person at home to manage multiple children in their family and maintain it all."

Doyle and her husband, Chris, have three children under the age of 12. Both grew up with three siblings and they always wanted to have a large family of their own.

But families like the Doyles are becoming less common.

It's partly due to the way society has developed, according to Harris Centre director Rob Greenwood. As more women of child-bearing age seek more education and sustainable employment, they tend to put off having children until much later.

For Doyle, there are other provincial factors that come into play.