B.C. United's collapse hinged on 2 decisions, analysts say

As many political watchers noted, Wednesday will likely go down as a monumental day in British Columbia politics — especially for the party formerly known as the B.C. Liberals.

What is now known as B.C. United will essentially not be a factor in the upcoming provincial election, after party leader Kevin Falcon's surprise move to suspend the Official Opposition's campaign and throw his weight behind John Rustad's upstart B.C. Conservatives.

Falcon, a former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, cut an atypical and forlorn figure as he announced the move at a news conference on Wednesday, said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

"This is a man who early on in his career, and through a long good chunk of it, has had a thread of confidence, even at times cockiness, chippiness," she said. "This was a man today who looked like he was on the brink of tears.

"Everything about what his body and his face was telling you was just how tough this has been for him to swallow both personally and professionally."

Political scientists point to his decision to boot Rustad out of his party, and his decision to change the party's name, as reasons for the party's collapse.

The move to suspend campaigning is likely to have ruffled feathers among B.C. United MLAs and staffers, according to analysts, especially given Falcon and Rustad had pointedly rejected a merger deal in May.

"This was a party that up until minutes ago … was looking to compete in this election," said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia (UBC), on Wednesday afternoon just after the news conference.

"And simply to wave the white flag, and to stand aside like this ... we haven't seen quite this version of this story before."

Polling numbers had B.C. United a distant third behind the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservatives, and fundraising numbers were also on a downward trend.

As reflected in a recent decision to ask to have "formerly B.C. Liberals" in brackets next to the B.C. United name on the ballot in October, a former MLA says the party rebrand — something championed by Falcon after he became leader in February 2022 — was poorly timed and not well executed.

"There was basically nothing done in terms of rebranding and helping the public understand who B.C. United was," said former Liberal cabinet minister Bill Bennett of the name change, which went through in April 2023.

"So that was, I think, a big mistake in the beginning and I don't know that anybody's to blame for that — there just, there wasn't money for it."

Gerald Baier, an associate professor of political science at UBC, said the rebrand will likely not factor into the post-mortem of Falcon's leadership as much as his decision to kick Rustad out of his party in February 2023.