An anxious Europe waits to learn if Russian gas will start flowing again

The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported this weekend that one of Gazprom's turbines — the one that recently became a geopolitical football — landed in Germany on July 17 and was now on its way back to Russia.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Wednesday that the Montreal workshop which refurbished the Nord Stream 1 turbine and then returned it to Germany at the behest of the Trudeau government — despite the fact that it was caught up in Canada's sanctions on Russia in response to its war on Ukraine — might not have done the job properly.

"Now they are saying that they will return these machines, at least one of them," he told Russian media in a televised event to mark his return from meetings with Iran's leaders. "But in which quality will they be returned? What are the technical parameters after this repair?"

Putin went on to suggest that "they will turn it off at some point, and that's it, and Nord Stream 1 will stop, because they came from there, from Canada."

He did not explain the meaning of that last statement. To many countries in Europe — especially Germany, which continues to depend on Russian gas to heat its homes and run its economy — the meaning seemed clear: Putin was propping up a technical pretext he could deploy in the event the flow of gas is not fully restored at midnight Eastern Standard time.

That's when the ten-day maintenance period for the Nord Stream One gas pipeline from Russia to Germany officially ends.

The Russian state energy company Gazprom also continued to lay the groundwork for bad faith claims about some technical impediment to delivering gas. Earlier this week, it declared a vaguely-worded "force majeure" — a claim that events beyond its control could prevent it from fulfilling its contractual obligations. 

On Wednesday, Gazprom argued that it still had not received documentation from Siemens Energy Canada it needed to reinstall the returned turbine, one of several that push gas through the pipe that runs under the Baltic Sea from Vyborg, Russia to Greifswald, Germany.

When CBC asked Siemens Canada whether there was any truth to that allegation, a company spokesperson responded with "no comment."

German Ambassador to Canada Sabine Sparwasser lobbied the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to grant a highly controversial sanctions waiver for the six Nord Stream turbines sent for repair to Canada. She acknowledged that their return won't ensure Russia responds in good faith and restores the full flow of gas.

"In many, many experts' opinions, it's a pretext. But we take away that pretext," she told CBC News. "We're delivering the turbine and then we will see whether there is a weaponization of energy by stopping the delivery or not."

She added that Russia failing to fulfil its gas delivery contract would "harm Russia's interests in the long run terribly" but is still "entirely possible."

Sparwasser said Germany is hoping to get enough gas to fill its storage tanks to 80 or 90 per cent capacity before the onset of winter.

On Wednesday, the European Commission (EC) announced that the average level of gas storage for European Union member countries is 64 per cent full — well short of where countries would like to be as cooler temperatures approach.