Albertans think Danielle Smith is bad on affordability. Here's why she isn't paying for it

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research in April, leading into the first anniversary of the United Conservative Party's general election win last May. The poll offers insight into how Albertans feel about Danielle Smith's UCP government and the Opposition NDP. 

As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time.  This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research.

The three most important issues to Albertans are health care, the cost of living and housing affordability — and fewer than one-third of Albertans think the provincial government is handling any of those files well, according to the latest batch of Janet Brown's polling for CBC News.

You might think these findings of public opinion ought to set off multiple fits of panic in Premier Danielle Smith's office. The big three issues, and they're all stinkers for the United Conservative government?

But Brown, arguably the most respected pollster in Alberta, has been doing this long enough to know how to dig into her own data to reach a less simplistic conclusion. She sees reasons why Team Smith probably won't be sweating the low scores on affordability or housing — yet — and flags other issues that could spell trouble for the premier against the Alberta NDP.

That deeper dive involves correlation analysis. (Please, don't throw your screen across the room or switch away to your word-puzzle app! I'll try my best to make sense of this! I'll even throw in a fast-food soda analogy!)

To really dig into which strengths and weaknesses the UCP (and its opposition) should sweat, Brown compared the government's approval rating on various issues to its overall approval rating. Does an Albertan's like or dislike of the UCP's handling of, say, the gender file drive its total impression of this government, or are people more likely to feel good or bad about the provincial handling of education regardless of how they feel about the UCP?

Then, Brown's team produces this chart: 

Clear yet? No? Fine.

Let me try a comparison that should be quicker than an early Sunday trip for drive-thru coffee.

In a past job, Brown did opinion research for a large fast-food chain. She produced a similar piece of analysis and chart for her corporate client.

For that restaurant, the issue that everybody seemed to support but it didn't drive people's overall impression (the top left corner of this chart) was its charitable donations — whoop-dee-doo, burger joint. Many disapproved of dirty bathrooms, but it wasn't a love-or-hate motivator for people (bottom left). This meant patrons expect untidy bathrooms, so at least they will keep eating there despite the ickiness.

The strong-suit issue that correlated with customer's support (top right) was hot and crispy fries — keep serving up those, and people would come back. What people disapproved of, and found to be a turn-off (bottom right), was how fizzy the soft drinks were. Based on this data, Brown recalls, the chain invested millions in better soda fountains to keep customers satisfied and their thirst quenched. 

Back to provincial politics.