Alberta's neighbours saw their own stark rural-urban election splits in new political reality

The day after leading the United Conservative Party to a majority government in Alberta in May 2023, Premier Danielle Smith was asked by CBC Power & Politics host David Cochrane how she viewed the results.

The election saw Smith's party dominate in the rural parts of the province but struggle in the two major cities in Alberta, getting shut out of Edmonton and claiming the minority of seats in Calgary. Smith noted the party was represented in mid-size cities such as Medicine Hat and Lethbridge but acknowledged what appeared to be a new reality.

"What I did see is that the left is consolidated now in our province. It really is a two-party province in a way that it hasn't been in the past," Smith told Cochrane.

Take a look at a map of the province's electoral results and you'll see the visual split: deep blue swaths covering large envelopes of the rural heartland of the province — communities like Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie, known for their energy, agriculture and resources. The UCP took 37 of the 41 seats outside of Calgary and Edmonton.

Pops of NDP orange, though visually overwhelmed by blue, include the urban strongholds of Calgary and Edmonton, home to the majority of the province's population. The NDP took all 20 seats in Edmonton, and 14 of the 26 in Calgary.

More than a year later, Alberta's neighbours to the east and west voted in similarly striking splits in their respective elections. 

Addressing supporters in Vancouver on Oct. 19, British Columbia Conservative Leader John Rustad didn't need a victory to claim that the political landscape in the province had shifted forever. 

The B.C. NDP performed stronger in urban areas such as Metro Vancouver, while rural and interior regions moved to the B.C. Conservatives. 

"How does it feel now to have [the] Conservative Party rocking British Columbia?" Rustad said.

Saskatchewan also saw this dynamic play out Monday night, though some races remain too close to call. The Saskatchewan NDP won big in the cities of Regina and Saskatoon, but the re-elected Saskatchewan Party locked up most of the rural parts of the province, as well as ridings in smaller cities.

In Manitoba, another similar split occurred as part of the election last October. Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew won a majority after taking control of the key battleground of Winnipeg, as well as the northern part of the province. After his victory, he reached out to rural Manitoba, largely behind the Progressive Conservatives, asking those residents to keep an open mind to his government.

All of the election results suggest a phenomenon across Canada's Prairie provinces, said Brendan Boyd, an assistant professor of political science at MacEwan University in Edmonton.

"There's a certain amount of homogeneity now across the Prairie provinces, in terms of the way the partisan politics shake down," Boyd told the Calgary Eyeopener last Monday. 

Boyd suggests the rise of the Conservatives in B.C. could provide an opportunity for Alberta's United Conservatives, who could see in the resurgent party a kindred spirit on energy and environmental issues, and, on a macro level, a potential ally against what those parties may view as ongoing federal overreach into provincial jurisdiction.