Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation

The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation.

The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada.

"Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year.

Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. 

"There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province.

"Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said.

Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. 

Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. 

St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. 

"There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said.

The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. 

It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. 

St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel.

"There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said.