Alberta may be on track for deadliest flu season on record, health experts warn

Alberta's flu season is now the second deadliest in recent memory and, while the influenza peak appears to have passed, the virus will be circulating for several months to come.

According to the province’s respiratory virus dashboard, 197 Albertans have died due to influenza so far this season.

That’s the second highest number of deaths since the 2009-10 season, when Alberta launched its universal seasonal flu vaccine program and data became publicly available.

"We are on pace to perhaps be the most deadly year on record, which is quite disappointing," said Craig Jenne, a professor in the department of microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Calgary.

There were 236 deaths during the entire 2024-25 season, 171 in the previous season and 121 in the 2022-23 season.

Death rates based on population are also among the highest reported.

"The biggest concern is that we don't see this trend turning around. Each of the last four years has been a record year for the number of fatalities here in the province."

Flu seasons generally run until March, according to Jenne.

“It’s too soon to estimate the total impact of flu this season, although it’s clearly already very high and may be the highest in recent years," said Maddison McKee, press secretary for the Minister of Primary and Preventative Health Services.

Severe outcomes typically drop quickly after the initial flu wave, she said. However, last year they continued to increase for a number of weeks, she noted.

Weekly case counts and hospitalizations have been dropping since the surge hit in December. The latest data shows 370 people were in hospital with influenza as of Jan. 17 and 26 were in the intensive care unit.

According to Dr. Stephanie Smith, an infectious diseases physician at the University of Alberta Hospital, there are likely a number of factors contributing to the high death toll this year, including a predominant strain (H3N2), which can cause more severe disease in older people, a slight mismatch with the vaccine, and low vaccination rates.

"I suspect that this year we'll have higher death rates than we did last year," she said, noting a lot of people are ending up in hospital with secondary bacterial infections, such as pneumonia, after they are sick with the flu.

So far this season, 20 per cent of Albertans have received a flu shot, just shy of the 21 per cent for the entire previous season.