Alberta hospitals might buckle under the next COVID wave, doctors worry

Calgary appears to be on the leading edge of Alberta's latest COVID-19 wave, and there are concerns about how the province's already strained hospitals will be able to handle yet another surge.

Transmission is rising in Alberta, driven by the more transmissible BA.5 subvariant.

"The levels in Calgary have gone way up since the 13th of July," said Dr. Dan Gregson, an infectious disease specialist and medical microbiologist with University of Calgary.

He's been watching Alberta's wastewater data closely and said the latest trend is clear.

"That's showing that we're having quite a bit of transmission in the community.… Not quite as much as the BA.2 wave, but we're getting there, and we'll see where that goes over the next few weeks," he said.

"It's possible that this current bump is related to our gatherings both at and around Stampede, and it may drop off or we may have a wave similar to what's gone on in Ontario and the U.K."

Positivity rates, for those eligible for PCR testing, are rising now throughout the province, with the most dramatic increase in the Calgary zone.

And Alberta's hospitalizations began ticking back up last week, too, for the first time since early May. 

"We're having — at least in terms of infection — a wave currently," said Gregson.

"The concern is when you look at jurisdictions like Ontario and the U.K. they didn't just have a wave of infections, they also had a wave of admissions."

Gregson predicts hospitalizations will keep going up in Alberta, with most people needing treatment such as oxygen support. But he expects the number of people requiring intensive care will likely be lower than during previous Omicron waves.

Frontline health-care workers, already exhausted after 2½ years of the pandemic, are starting to see early signs of this surge in Alberta's emergency rooms as more COVID-19 patients show up once again.

"This is the start. From talking to my colleagues in Ontario, we're probably a couple of weeks behind them," said Dr. Paul Parks, president of the emergency medicine section with the Alberta Medical Association.

"Our system is very, very stressed and overwhelmed already.… Adding more sick COVID patients is going to be a real challenge."