Airlines weigh risks in Mideast skies filled with 'hot pieces of flying metal'

Confusing advice and on-again-off-again airport closures are complicating the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of foreigners stranded in the conflict zone around the Persian Gulf. 

A wide area of the Middle East is now considered too dangerous to fly, forcing some Asian-bound flights to burn more fuel diverting around the danger zone. Flight radar shows an oval-shaped area about 2,500 kilometres wide and 2,000 kilometres north-to-south, centred on Iran, almost devoid of civil aviation as the country endures bombardment by the U.S. and Israel.

The main hazards for civil aviation in the Gulf — affecting the airspace of more than a dozen countries — are not the hundreds of retaliatory ballistic missiles and drones that have been launched by Iran, although they certainly pose a risk.

The more dire threat is the heat-seeking air defences of countries swept into the conflict.

Air defence batteries brought down three U.S. F-15 fighter jets in Kuwait on Monday in what appeared to be a case of friendly fire. It was another reminder that when missiles and combat aircraft start flying, air defence crews can react without properly verifying their target.

Two of the most notorious cases occurred in the skies over and around Iran and involved two of the three main parties in this war. The first was the shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655 by the USS Vincennes destroyer in 1988. The second was the downing of Ukraine International Airlines PS752 by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2020.

In a region that has seen tragic mistakes resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilian air passengers, decisions on whether to fly remain fairly ad hoc and can come down to the judgment of an individual pilot.

Air traffic increased out of several airports in the Middle East on Wednesday, as both scheduled and chartered flights moved people out of the conflict zone from Oman, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. There was also some traffic out of Bahrain, Qatar and Lebanon. 

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said Wednesday evening that the government is working to charter flights out of the United Arab Emirates and to block book seats on commercial flights both from the U.A.E. and other countries.

Anand said 200 more seats are available for Canadians wishing to leave Lebanon over the next three days. She said that only 164 of over 23,000 Canadians have requested evacuation from Lebanon — a much lower number than in some previous rounds of conflict. 

Only 2,000 out of over 100,000 Canadians in the whole region are requesting assistance in leaving.

The departures board at Beirut International Airport showed mostly cancellations on Wednesday, but Lebanon's own national carrier Middle East Airlines continued to cycle some flights through.

At least one departing flight, MEA267 from Beirut to Istanbul, appeared to make some kind of abnormal manoeuvre, deviating dramatically off course shortly after takeoff before returning to its flight path further out over the Mediterranean.

There remains confusion and consternation among foreigners stranded across the Middle East as they try to decipher at times contradictory instructions on how to evacuate.