A fact-check on Modi’s speech in Rajasthan about Muslims and Manmohan Singh

Fact-check debunks PM Modi's claims on Muslims having more children, using government data on fertility rates and education levels.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a series of controversial statements at a public meeting in Rajasthan. He referred to Muslims in India as “those who have a large number of children” and claimed that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said (in 2006) “Muslims had the first claim on the country’s resources”. He alleged that the 2024 Congress manifesto proposes to distribute people’s wealth among Muslims if the party is elected to power. He made this claim by combining sections in the manifesto, which addresses wealth inequality, and connecting those points to the former Prime Minister’s speech in 2006.

A fact-check using government data shows that the claim that Muslims give birth to more children is erroneous.

Table 1 | The table shows the total fertility rates (TFR) of women from various religious groups. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A rate of 2.1 (the ‘replacement level’) means that the population is stable.

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As the table shows, the fertility rate of Muslims along with the fertility rates of all other religious groups have been drastically declining over the years. As per 2019-21 data, the fertility rate of Muslims was 2.36, much closer to the replacement level. Also, the gap between the fertility levels of Hindu and Muslim women (B-A in table) has sharply reduced from 0.81 to 0.42 in the two decades. This trend holds true even among the most populous States (Table 2).

Table 2 | The table shows the TFR of Hindu and Muslim women for the five most populous States in two periods.

Excerpts from a government press release dated December 6, 2006, quoted Dr. Singh as follows: “I believe our collective priorities are clear. Agriculture, irrigation and water resources, health, education…along with programmes for the upliftment of SC/STs, other backward classes, minorities and women and children...We will have to devise innovative plans to ensure that minorities, particularly the Muslim minority, are empowered to share equitably in the fruits of development. They must have the first claim on resources...” While Dr. Singh’s statement was aimed at all vulnerable sections of society, his emphasis on Muslims was singled out by Mr. Modi.