Would Trump invade Canada? Equal numbers fear, doubt military force: poll

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News also found half of Canadians would trust Prime Minister Mark Carney to handle a potential military threat from the U.S.

Equal numbers of Canadians both fear and doubt a U.S. military invasion as U.S. President Donald Trump ramps up his expansionist rhetoric, a new poll suggests.

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News also found half of Canadians would trust Prime Minister Mark Carney to handle a potential military threat from the U.S. — nearly triple the number who said the same of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Asked by Ipsos to what extent they agreed or disagreed with various statements on a possible U.S. military invasion, 56 per cent of Canadians said they either strongly agree (16 per cent) or somewhat agree (40 per cent) that the U.S. would never invade.

However, the same number said they were fearful an invasion could happen, with 17 per cent strongly agreeing and 39 per cent somewhat agreeing with the statement: “I am fearful Trump will use military force against Canada.”

“This is a question we would not have asked even a year ago,” said Gregory Jack, senior vice-president of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“It’s about 50-50, and that’s a number that I think, had we asked this question a year ago, would have been closer to 80-20 or even 90-10 in terms of those saying it was not a realistic possibility.”

Jack noted more women than men were fearful of a military conflict between the longtime allies, while fears of a U.S. invasion were more prominent among younger Canadians aged 18-34.

While Trump has previously said he would use “economic force” to take over Canada, fears of a military invasion have escalated since the U.S. president began talking about acquiring Greenland this year — and floated the possibility of using force.