With Russia pressing on and Ukraine digging in, how will Putin's war actually end?
CBC
In the eyes of its growing army of critics, Russia has already lost the war it started.
Not only is President Vladimir Putin isolated by much of the world, but if we presume his ideal outcome was a quick campaign in which he'd remove Ukraine's leadership and be welcomed by its citizens, then he has fallen short of his objectives.
The campaign has wrought destruction, wanton loss of life, and the forced displacement of two million people — without counting those on the move internally.
These are hardly conditions conducive to an easily or satisfactorily negotiated end to the crisis. Not for a leader accustomed to near-impunity in other military ventures. And not for Ukraine, the aggrieved nation that in any scenario will suffer the consequences of the ensuing brutality for generations.
So how does Russia's war in Ukraine actually end? Here are some possibilities.
Two weeks into the invasion, Russian forces continued to shell several cities, hampering efforts to evacuate civilians. More than 400 civilian deaths have been recorded, although the UN human rights office says the true number is much higher.
A Kremlin spokesman said on Monday that the fighting could stop "in a moment" if Ukraine would "stop their military action" and agree to Russia's demands: recognize Crimea as Russian, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions as independent, and enshrine in its constitution a vow to remain neutral and out of any bloc, namely NATO.
Unsurprisingly, Ukraine rejected the offer, describing it as "an ultimatum."
Russia, for its part, is unwilling to back down. At a campaign event Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that in his last conversation with Putin, the Russian president refused to even entertain a ceasefire.
"I don't think that in the days and weeks to come there will be a true negotiated solution," said Macron.
So, a negotiated solution will likely neither be easy nor quick. Still, a lineup of leaders from Russia-friendly nations — Turkey, India, China and Israel — have emerged to try their hands at diplomacy. The Vatican has also offered its mediation services.
Even Ukraine's foreign minister called Monday for face-to-face talks between Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.
WATCH | Kremlin controlling information Russians are receiving about the Ukraine war:
It's hard to imagine that meeting materializing any time soon, especially when one of Putin's main stated objectives was a change in Ukraine's leadership. Plus, as he would discover, Ukrainians would fight back, and fight back fiercely.
