Can Trump's 'gunboat diplomacy' stop Iran from blocking the flow of oil? Not likely, say experts

With jagged cliffs rising from the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz is striking in its scenery — and these days, its emptiness. This resource superhighway, which normally hosts more than a hundred of the world’s largest oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) tankers every day, has seen no more than a handful all week.

They are the brave ones, daring to run these front lines where U.S. and Iranian naval forces face off. At least 14 commercial vessels have suffered some kind of violent incident, leaving at least eight mariners dead. 

Oil and gas facilities have been hit, too. Smoke still rises from burning fuel tanks at Oman’s Port of Salah.

Iran, which commands one side of the narrow waterway, has declared it closed, labelling any vessel destined for the U.S., Israel or their “hostile partners” a “legitimate target.”

A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG runs through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving customers worldwide facing shortages and rising prices due to the blockade. Iran has predicted oil will surpass $200 US a barrel, double its current levels and well above pre-war levels of $72. 

This, despite a record intervention from the International Energy Agency, attempting to soften the blow. The IEA, made up of major oil-consuming countries, recommended releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves.

“The United States completely blew this,” said Sal Mercogliano, a naval historian and maritime shipping expert at Campbell University in North Carolina. “How they didn’t know this was going to happen is really mystifying … they should have been prepared.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the problem as temporary, and the danger as manageable. He says he told oil companies “they should” continue to use the sea lanes, offering them better insurance. He promised to check Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz by “taking it over,” if necessary.

Trump is counting on his own forces — “the most powerful military in the world” — to prevail. He’s already boasted of destroying all of Iran’s navy, including 28 mine ships, and that the U.S. “just took out just about all of their mines,” without offering any evidence. 

“It’s all very much gunboat diplomacy,” said Mercogliano, reminiscent of colonial power bullying from the 1800s.

The Strait of Hormuz is only 60 metres at its shallowest, and 33 kilometres at its narrowest, with shipping lanes no more than two kilometres wide.

Naval experts like Mark Norman, a retired vice-admiral of the Canadian navy and a former vice-chief of Canada’s defence staff, are skeptical the U.S. can re-establish shipping through the area. 

“It can be pretty impressive to go in there and basically pummel the hell out of command and control, infrastructure, leadership, military and industrial capability, et cetera,” he said. “But that's not a guarantee of anything.”

The challenge comes in the form of asymmetrical warfare, say experts.