Will there be a lasting ceasefire in Gaza? | Explained Premium

Israel and Hamas inch closer to a truce under U.S. mediation amid escalating violence and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The story so far: More than 19 months since the Gaza war began, with only two brief ceasefires in between, Israel and Hamas are inching closer to agreeing on another truce — this time under the direct mediation of the U.S. In recent weeks, Israel has come under increasing international pressure, with even its close allies in the West, including Germany, and the U.K., intensifying their criticism of the war. Under pressure, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said last week that it would accept a ceasefire proposal presented by Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East (West Asia). Meanwhile, the UN has warned that all 2.3 million Palestinians of Gaza are facing a severe hunger crisis.

When Israel launched its war on Gaza, following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 cross-border attack, killing nearly 1,200 people, it had two primary objectives — dismantle Hamas and secure the release of hostages (Hamas had taken at least 250 hostages on October 7). Since then, the war has devastated the entire Gaza strip, a tiny, densely populated enclave sandwiched between Israel and the Mediterranean Sea. According to Gaza’s health authorities, more than 54,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli attacks since October 7, with over 1,23,000 wounded. The entire population of Gaza has been displaced. Yet, Hamas has maintained its grip on Gaza’s population, and continued to resist Israeli forces. As of now, at least 58 hostages remain in Hamas’s captivity (20 of them are believed to be dead). Israel’s strategy of ramping up military pressure on Hamas by attacking Palestinians indiscriminately and thereby forcing the group to release hostages has not worked so far. On the two previous occasions when Hamas released hostages, it did so as part of ceasefire agreements. This leaves Israel in a difficult position. It is facing increasing global criticism over the war, and has failed to achieve its two main objectives: the elimination of Hamas and the release of the hostages.

In January, Israel and Hamas had agreed to a three-phase ceasefire. In the first phase, which was successfully implemented, Hamas released hostages and Israel freed Palestinian prisoners. The second phase was to see an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, leading to a permanent end to the war. But Israel wanted to extend the first phase of the ceasefire to get more hostages in return for prisoner release. When Hamas rejected the extension, Israel resumed its bombing campaign. Since then, Israel has launched a broader offensive and massive bombings in Gaza, pushing the enclave’s already displaced people to the southern coastal stretches. Simultaneously, Israel has stopped aid delivery to Gaza, plunging the enclave into an acute hunger crisis. According to the UN Children’s Fund, since the end of the ceasefire on March 18, “1,309 children have reportedly been killed and 3,738 injured” in Gaza. Since October 2023, more than 50,000 children have been killed or injured, said the agency.

Israel has remained defiant. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he wanted Gaza to be “completely destroyed” and its people should be moved to a “humanitarian zone” in the south from where they should flee the territory to other countries. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly warned the government against letting aid into Gaza. It was against this backdrop of Israel’s indiscriminate attacks, Israeli Ministers’ genocidal statements and Palestinians’ mounting suffering that Western countries expressed rare public criticisms against Israel. The U.K., France and Canada issued a joint statement, “strongly opposing” the expansion of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, and asked the Jewish country to halt settlements in the West Bank. Friedric Merz, Germany’s new Chancellor, said Israel’s attacks “are no longer justified”. Even Mr. Trump raised concerns about Gaza’s hunger crisis.

The Biden administration had occasionally expressed concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, but consistently supported Israel’s war, both militarily and diplomatically. The Trump administration lifted even Biden era restrictions on arms supplies to Israel, and has been careful not to attack Israel over the conflict. But signs of differences have emerged between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump over West Asia. This week, Mr. Trump confirmed reports that he had warned Mr. Netanyahu against carrying out attacks against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Trump launched direct talks with Iran, seeking a deal to resolve the nuclear crisis (which in part has been worsened by his 2018 decision, during his first term, to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal). In early May, he abruptly ended the U.S. military campaign against Houthis — a sworn Israeli enemy and Iranian ally — by striking a deal with the Yemeni militants through Omani mediation. Although the Houthis continue to attack Israel, the deal with Mr. Trump remains intact. Mr. Trump’s team also held direct talks with Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist entity, and concluded a deal for the release of an Israeli-American hostage. Mr. Witkoff, President’s Trump’s key mediator, has been actively parleying with multiple regional players, including Israel, Egypt, Qatar and Hamas, to push for a ceasefire.

The Witkoff plan calls for a 60-day ceasefire. “President Trump guarantees Israel’s adherence to the ceasefire during the agreed-upon period,” says the draft document. As per the plan, 10 Israeli live hostages and 18 deceased hostages are to be released on days 1 and 7. In exchange for the release of the 10 Israeli live hostages, Israel will release 125 “life sentence” prisoners and 1,111 Gazan detainees who were detained after October 7, 2023. In exchange for the release of the remains of 18 hostages, Israel will release 180 deceased Gazans. Aid will be sent to Gaza immediately, and will be distributed through agreed upon channels, including the UN and Red Crescent. Israel will cease all its offensive military activities, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would be redeployed in Gaza’s south and north within seven days. On day one of the ceasefire, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations for a permanent ceasefire.

The Witkoff proposal leaves out the most critical issue — the question of Gaza’s future. Israel demands a total surrender of Hamas, while Hamas insists on a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza. If Israel agrees to withdraw, Hamas would retain its presence and influence in the territory — an outcome that could cost Prime Minister Netanyahu the support of his far-right coalition partners. If Israel refuses to withdraw, Hamas may decline to release the remaining hostages and the war could continue. So the prospects for peace in Gaza remain bleak.