Will Bank of Canada cut rates next week? How new data factors into the call

Most business owners are feeling less pessimistic about a potential recession than earlier this year, but still say they're feeling 'subdued.'

While the latest Bank of Canada survey data suggests both businesses and consumers are in need of more financial relief amid the trade war, many economists doubt the central bank will cut rates on July 30.

Most business owners are feeling less pessimistic about a potential recession than earlier this year, but still say they’re feeling “subdued,” according to the results of the latest Business Outlook Survey released by the Bank of Canada on Monday.

“Business sentiment, although still subdued, has improved from the sharp declines recorded in March and April 2025,” the Bank of Canada says in its summary of the survey findings.

“The share of firms planning for a recession in Canada has declined slightly, from 32 per cent (at the end of March) to 28 per cent (at the end of June), but remains above 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing concerns about trade tensions.”

The Bank of Canada also reports that consumers share a similar outlook, in that many are holding off on big-budget purchases or other long-term commitments because of the uncertainty surrounding the trade war and tariffs.

“A higher-than-usual share of consumers said the future is particularly hard to predict right now. Households are reacting to uncertainty by reducing spending, delaying major purchases, and increasing savings,” the Bank of Canada says in its findings.

“This, in turn, makes it more difficult for businesses to understand how demand conditions will evolve.”

The Bank of Canada last cut interest rates in March.