Who are Canada's top Olympic gold-medal contenders?

Though the opening ceremony isn't until Friday, competition at the Paris Olympics begins tomorrow with some men's soccer and rugby sevens matches that you can stream live on CBC Sports' Olympic website and mobile app.

Since Canada didn't qualify for either event, I thought it might be good to spend today on some of the top Canadians to watch once the Games really get going.

According to the latest forecast from the data company Nielsen's Gracenote, Canadian athletes are expected to win seven gold medals in Paris. That's the same amount Canada won in 2021 in Tokyo, which matched the national record for a non-boycotted Summer Games. Gracenote's statistical model predicts Canada will win 21 medals overall in Paris, which would be three fewer than in Tokyo.

Here's a look at the six Canadians projected to capture a gold, with some analysis on where the Gracenote model might be too high or too low on them.

For help with that, I checked the betting odds for various events. The intention here is not to promote sports gambling (God knows we don't need more of that). Rather, I think betting markets are a useful forecasting tool because they express the collective knowledge of people who back their opinions with actual money.

Summer McIntosh (swimming)

These Summer Olympics might quickly become, well, the Summer Olympics as the 17-year-old phenom is favoured to win two gold medals and could reach several more podiums over the first nine full days of competition.

McIntosh's first Olympic medal could come as soon as Saturday in the women's 400m freestyle, where she'll battle Australia's Ariarne Titmus and American Katie Ledecky in what could be the most exciting swimming showdown of the Games. Gracenote's model has McIntosh missing the podium in this insanely competitive event after she finished fourth (behind New Zealand's Erika Fairweather) at the 2023 world championships. But the betting markets disagree. They see Mcintosh battling Ledecky for the silver behind Titmus, the world-record holder and clear favourite to repeat as Olympic champ.

Gracenote's model has McIntosh winning gold in the 400m individual medley on July 29 and the 200m butterfly on Aug 1 after she claimed back-to-back world titles in both events. The betting markets agree, as the Canadian is a massive favourite in the 400 IM and a smaller-but-still-clear favourite in the 200 fly.

The model and the bettors diverge on McIntosh's chances in her final individual event, the 200m medley on Aug. 3. Gracenote has her missing the podium, while the people with money on it see a three-way battle between McIntosh, Australia's Kaylee McKeown and American Kate Douglass, with no clear favourite.

McIntosh could also swim in up to four relay events. Gracenote's model has Canada taking bronze in the women's 4x100m freestyle and 4x100m medley, presumably with McIntosh on both teams. Add those to her four solo podium opportunities, and there's a good chance McIntosh surpasses 16-year-old Penny Oleksiak's four medals in 2016 — the Canadian record for a single Summer Games.

Speaking of Penny, she didn't qualify for any individual events but will still have a chance to add to her Canadian-record seven Olympic medals in the relays. Read more about her rough road to Paris here.

Damian Warner (decathlon)

The Olympics' ultimate test of all-around athleticism was shaping up as a battle between two Canadians: Warner, the reigning Olympic champion, vs. Pierce LePage, the reigning world champ. But LePage pulled out last week due to a back injury, making Warner the favourite to repeat coming off his silver at last year's world championships.