When will the Omicron wave end? Data suggests it could be soon, but experts are wary

Data out of South Africa shows the latest COVID-19 wave, driven by the Omicron variant, is falling and could spell a future of the pandemic that is less acute than previous waves.

With the Omicron variant driving COVID-19-related hospitalizations in Canada to record levels, many are wondering when this latest wave will fade — and data from at home and abroad suggests it could be soon.

In South Africa, where Omicron was first identified, cases have already plummeted from their mid-December peak. Other southern African countries like Zimbabwe and Namibia have also seen infections rise and fall within a similar time frame.

Cases didn’t start rising in Canada, and much of the Western world, until about a month later. That suggests the Omicron wave could peak here in mid-to-late January before falling in February. Yet experts are wary about making a direct comparison.

“So far, the evidence suggests that this will be a very quick wave, because it’s infecting so many people so quickly,” said Kerry Bowman, a bioethicist and professor at the University of Toronto.

“But these are very different populations we’re talking about here, so I hesitate to compare the two and say (southern Africa) points to what Canada and others will see.”

Omicron hit South Africa and neighbouring nations differently than the West, according to local studies. Hospitalizations crested at 40 per cent of previous waves, health officials there said in December, and deaths were relatively low.