Beef prices continue to soar, but signs of coming relief are emerging

Statistics Canada on Monday said the price of beef rose nearly 14 per cent year over year in February, but that rate is slower compared with the month before.

There may be some slight relief on the horizon for steak and hamburger lovers in Canada who have seen beef prices soar in recent years, experts and data suggest, with the possibility of supply finally catching up to demand.

The latest consumer price index report from Statistics Canada on Monday showed that the price of fresh and frozen beef rose nearly 14 per cent year over year in February — once again outpacing overall food inflation at 4.1 per cent.

However, the new numbers mark a drop from the 18.8 per cent increase reported in January compared with the year before.

“I think we’re starting to see some turnaround,” said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph.

“We sort of see seasonal variation in prices because of seasonal variation in demand,” he added, with more people grilling in the summer months, “but it appears that we’ve maybe reached the peak to a degree and maybe — not quickly, but over the next several years — we’ll start seeing better supply and lower prices.”

Last November, retail beef prices rose 27 per cent from the year before and were 41 per cent higher than the five-year average, according to the latest market report released last month by Canada Beef.

Those higher prices were a hangover from multiple years of drought in Western Canada in the early 2020s, which reduced pasture growth and feed stocks for cattle herds. The war in Ukraine and other supply disruptions also drove prices for feed, fertilizer and other production inputs higher.

That led producers to hold back on expanding their herds. As a result, the number of cattle across Canada fell last January to its lowest level since the 1980s, despite consumer demand reaching its highest point since that same decade.