What will determine the Papal Conclave? | Explained

The upcoming Papal Conclave: a complex interplay of spiritual and political forces shaping the future of the Catholic Church.

The story so far:

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, the Catholic Church entered into the sede vacante(the time for which the papal seat is empty). This period culminates in the Papal Conclave, the ancient ritual to elect the next Pope. While deeply spiritual, the Conclave is also a political process — a complex interplay shaped by rules, personalities, historical precedents, and the significant, sometimes controversial, legacy of the previous pontificate.

Also Read: Pope Francis | 1936-2025

The Universi Dominici Gregis (UDG), an apostolic constitution, governs the process. It dictates strict procedures, and demands secrecy and complete isolation within the Vatican City. This enforced secrecy aims to minimise external influence. However, it simultaneously creates a unique internal political environment. Here, influence hinges on pre-existing relationships, sharp negotiation, and the persuasive efforts of respected figures — the ‘great electors’ — working behind the scenes to build alliances and steer votes. Sequestered, cardinal electors are incentivised to make their choice based on their own conscience, free from external lobbying. Also significant is the fact that a successful candidate requires a a two-thirds majority. This necessitates consensus-building, favours compromise and candidates acceptable across different blocs, preventing any narrow faction from dominating.

Only cardinals under 80 years, at the time of the Pope’s death or resignation, have voting rights. However, cardinals over the age-limit can still participate in pre-Conclave general congregations, leveraging their experience and clout, potentially swaying less experienced cardinals before voting even begins. 

The current electorate was significantly shaped by Pope Francis; he appointed approximately 80% (around 108 of the 135 expected attendees) of the voting cardinals. He frequently exceeded the nominal 120-elector limit set by Paul VI — a clear exercise of papal prerogative, allowing a Pope to rapidly influence the body choosing his successor.

Significant ideological differences mark the College of Cardinals, broadly reflecting the intense debate over Pope Francis’s legacy and the Church’s future path. Broadly there are two major camps — reformist and conservative. The reformist/progressive faction supports Pope Francis’s vision. They emphasise pastoral theology (more practical application) over rigid doctrine, encourage synodality (a more consultative Church), prioritise social justice — poverty, migration, climate change — and favour greater inclusion of women and other marginalised groups such as LGBTQ+ Catholics.