What to expect from global macro in 2026?
The Peninsula
Doha, Qatar: The global economy endured large negative shocks during 2025, which were reflected by significant turbulence in financial markets and num...
Doha, Qatar: The global economy endured large negative shocks during 2025, which were reflected by significant turbulence in financial markets and numerous iterations of economic growth forecasts. By mid-year, a dim outlook was grounded on the fears of broader and deeper trade wars after the new US administration embarked on a comprehensive increase of tariff rates for imports from all countries. This represented a major threat to global supply chains and a potential blow to growth in both advanced economies and emerging markets, QNB said in its economic commentary.
Expectations later began to recover gradually, as US policy shifted towards a more pragmatic stance, and an increasing number of signed trade deals helped moderate uncertainty, as well as discard the most extreme negative scenarios for global trade.
The improvement in the global outlook by the final part of the year helped set a less pessimistic tone for 2026. Going forward, we believe conditions point to a relatively stable macroeconomic environment of more balanced and synchronised global growth. Our view is slightly more positive than consensus, as we see the global economy expanding 3.2% in 2026. This rate of growth implies a minor acceleration in activity, although still below long-term growth trends.
In this article, we discuss the key factors that determine the outlook for the three major economies: the US, China, and the Euro Area, which together account for close to 60% of the world economy.
US economic growth is expected to remain resilient, backed by robust household consumption and investment flows. Consumption is benefiting from robust household balance sheets, showing the strongest financial position in decades, as well as from still-low unemployment rates. The AI-boom is fuelling investment flows and expectations of increasing productivity on the back of the adoption of new technologies.
